Forecasters are predicting that the El Niño, which has brought wet cloudy weather to South Florida this winter, will weaken in the coming months, bringing the likelihood of drier weather.

“But it’s not over yet,” said one meteorologist.

So far, it’s been a classic El Niño winter in our region. A hot Pacific Ocean has caused the subtropical jet stream to shift south, aiming moist Pacific air our way, resulting in a relatively wet, windy and stormy winter.

In December, the entirety of South Florida was wet, with some areas getting almost twice the normal amount of rainfall for the month, according to data from the South Florida Water Management District website. Four straight days of rain in mid-December boosted numbers. The Keys and Everglades had almost three times the normal amount of December rain.

Since Oct. 1, Broward County has exceeded the winter dry season rainfall average by 3 inches.

Though February has a smidge dryer than normal, with just over half an inch of rain in the region, Todd Kimberlain, lead meteorologist at the SFWMD, said that “models are telling us that there could be a bigger (rain) event out there around the 18th to the 20th of February.”

“Right now the subtropical jet stream is enhanced, and there have been heavy rains in California. Two weeks ago it was enhanced and Texas and Louisiana got considerable rain — we’re talking about 15, 16 inches,” Kimberlain said. “We haven’t seen any really impressive rains since November and December, but we’re not done yet. There very well could be another event out there.”

Two months of gloomy skies

If this winter has seemed particularly gloomy for the Sunshine State, your eyes do not deceive you.

“It’s been cloudier than our typical winter so far,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Robert Molleda.

Climatologist Brian Brettschneider posted some December to January cloud cover maps on social media site X. They show that South Florida and the eastern Great Lakes region were the cloudiest places in North America from December through January.

The incessant clouds have kept temperatures moderate — they often blocked bright sunshine during the day, and trapped atmospheric warmth in at night.

“That’s what we’ve seen in past El Niño events, too,” Molleda said. “You don’t get as much in the way of cold temps, but the cloudy days limit your high temperatures.”

The high-altitude subtropical jet stream winds may have kept the severe cold out as well. “We haven’t had any really strong cold continental or even arctic air reach Florida,” Molleda said. 

El Niño, La Niña what it could mean for hurricane season

Though El Niño has had its way this winter, forecasters are seeing a shift that may lead to a La Niña.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Miami’s National Weather Service said that the El Niño may have peaked, and NOAA just announced that El Niño will almost certainly peter out to neutral between April and June.

They also announced a “La Niña Watch,” meaning the water temperature trends in the Eastern Pacific, which dictate El Niños and La Niñas, indicate a 55% chance of a transition into La Niña some time in the June to August timeframe.

What does that mean for us in the Atlantic?

“It looks like the El Niño may have already peaked, or will be peaking very soon” based on most model projections, said Molleda.

“We do know that La Niña can lead to more conducive conditions for tropical storms or hurricanes to form over the Atlantic Ocean,” said Molleda, “so we could be looking at an increased potential for more storms forming.” In theory, a La Niña will lower wind shear in the tropical Atlantic, thus allowing tropical storms to form more easily.

“Some models are showing a developing La Niña by the middle or late summer, during the peak of the hurricane season,” said Kimberlain.

On top of that, tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures, from off Africa across to the Caribbean, are currently above normal. Warm waters fuel hurricanes.

“The waters in the Atlantic have been very warm for some time, especially in the tropics and subtropics. At this very moment they’re the warmest they’ve ever been at this time of year. That, with the developing La Niña, could present some problems,” warned Kimberlain.

University of Miami climatologist Brian McNoldy wrote on social media platform X that “as of February 7, the tropical east Atlantic sea surface temperature is as warm as it would typically be on June 7,” and posted a map of current sea surface temperature anomalies.

As of February 7, the tropical east Atlantic sea surface temperature is as warm as it would typically be on JUNE 7. The anomaly, averaged over the area shown on this map, is +1.26°C… with areas off the west coast of Africa exceeding +4°C.

— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) February 8, 2024

And meteorologist Jeff Berardelli posted a map comparing 2023’s February Atlantic sea surface temperatures with 2024’s, showing this year as already having hotter water than last year.

With news that a La Nina Watch has been issued for the Pacific, let's check the Atlantic to see how this year's sea surface temps compare to last years at this time. Welp, that's not good.

— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) February 9, 2024

One factor that helped keep most tropical storms away from South Florida last year was the Bermuda High, a semi-permanent high pressure system that forms over the Atlantic.

When weak, it allows storms to arc north before reaching Florida’s east coast. When strong, it can steer storms straight west, into Florida or the Gulf of Mexico. 2023’s weak Bermuda High permitted nearly every Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane to spin north, away from Florida. Molleda said it’s too early to tell how the Bermuda High will play out this year.