Wayne Simien could be this year’s Jameer Nelson.

Nelson held a top-10 Tendex rating for the 2004 NBA Draft. He was chosen at No. 20 by Orlando, eventually took a starting job from veteran Cuttino Mobley, and wound up the season ranked among the top 10 rookies in the league (second-team All-Rookie).

Simien, a power forward from Kansas, is the No. 8-rated Tendex player for tonight’s draft. NBA scouting lists project him being selected at the bottom of the first round.

Tendex is a formula in which players earn points for positive statistics and lose points for negative stats; it accounts for the pace at which a team plays and strength of schedule.

Tendex ranked Dwyane Wade No. 1 on the list of college players during the 2001-02 and ’02-03 seasons. The Heat was able to draft him at No. 5.

Tendex was first applied to the draft in 1984. The Tendex top four that year was: 1. Michael Jordan; 2. Akeem Olajuwon; 3. Charles Barkley; 4. John Stockton. Olajuwon was drafted No. 1, Jordan third, Barkley fifth and Stockton 16th.

Over the years Tendex has proven fallible, too. Hyped Tendex players Evan Eschmeyer and Corey Benjamin did little in the NBA.

Tendex does not effectively rate high school players. Tendex ratings are not available for most international players.

Among the collegians, there are at least 20 players about whom Tendex and scouts’ ratings differ substantially for tonight’s draft.

On one side are Deron Williams, Channing Frye, Raymond Felton, Hakim Warrick and Rashad McCants, whom the scouts rate higher than Tendex does.

The other side includes Danny Granger, Sean May, Simien, Dijon Thompson and Julius Hodge, whom Tendex rates higher than the scouts.

TENDEX RATINGS

Tendex was developed by Sun-Sentinel writer Dave Heeren and was first used to rate players in the 1984 draft. In the Tendex first round below, Michael Harris, Travis Diener, Omar Thomas and Ronald Ross are listed lower than their ratings would appear to warrant because of size issues. Even so, they are more highly rated by Tendex than by the scouts.

PLAYER COLLEGE, ETC. POS. TENDEX

1. Andrew Bogut Utah C/PF +105.9%

2. Danny Granger New Mexico SF +93.6%

3. Sean May North Carolina PF +74.7%

4. Marvin Williams North Carolina SF +67.7%

5. Chris Paul Wake Forest PG +63.1%

6. Gerald Green high school F/G NR

7. Martell Webster high school SG NR

8. Wayne Simien Kansas PF +60.9%

9. Antoine Wright Texas A&M; SG +59.4%

10. Charlie Villanueva Connecticut F +58.8%

10. Francisco Garcia Louisville SG +58.8%

12. Dijon Thompson UCLA SG +57.9%

13. Joey Graham Oklahoma St. SG/SF +56.7%

14. Jarrett Jack Georgia Tech PG +56.0%

15. Julius Hodge N.C. State G/F +55.3%

16. Chris Taft Pittsburgh PF +54.9%

17. Ike Diogu Arizona St. F +54.3%

18. Martynas Andriuskevicius Lithuania C NR

19. Johan Petro France C NR

20. Andray Blatche high school PF NR

21. Andrew Bynum high school C NR

22. Monta Ellis high school SG NR

23. Fran Vazquez Spain PF NR

24. Michael Harris Rice F +84.3%

25. Travis Diener Marquette PG +78.6%

26. Omar Thomas UTEP G/F +61.1%

27. Ronald Ross Texas Tech G +56.8%

28. Rashad McCants North Carolina SG +53.5%

28. Kelenna Azubuike Kentucky SG +53.5%

30. Brandon Bass LSU PF +52.0%