The big question around the NBA right now is who will win and who will lose in the Damian Lillard trade.
That’s easy.
Lillard and the Miami Heat have won.
Portland has lost.
Let’s not get into semantics about the trade not actually being official. There’s only one way this ends.
Let’s also not get into dissecting the Heat’s potential trade package, the national narrative about Lillard being disloyal or how Portland general manager Joe Cronin made some noble stand by claiming to be in no hurry to trade Lillard.
“We’re going to be patient,” Cronin said Monday. “We’re going to do what’s best for our team. We’re going to see, you know, how this lands. And if it takes months, it takes months.”
It’s hard to know if Cronin is waiting for Lillard to change his mind or waiting for a better offer to come across his desk. It’s easier to see how Portland misplayed its hand and mishandled its Dwyane Wade or Dan Marino in reaching this point.
The time for Cronin to act wasn’t when Lillard demanded a trade to the Heat two weeks ago. It was a year ago when Portland convinced Lillard to sign on for two more years by saying they’d put a contending team around him. It’s was all smiles in the news conference that day. Portland then did such a bang-up job in supporting Lillard, it didn’t make the playoffs.
Maybe Portland still had a chance to keep Lillard a couple of weeks ago when it not only refused to trade the No. 3 pick for veteran help but drafted Lillard’s replacement in the process.
So Lillard’s choice was to play out the final years of his career burping young players or asking out to win somewhere else. And, by somewhere, he means the Heat. And everyone knows it. There’s no doubt a few options on the table from the Heat involving Tyler Herro, draft picks and young players.
Portland wants more. But if no other team is negotiating a trade, should the Heat bump up their offer to satisfy Portland? Would you?
Lillard doesn’t have a no-trade clause in the manner the previous Heat target did this summer, Bradley Beal, had one. That’s not to say Lillard has no pull. He’s put in 11 respected years in Portland, turns 33 on Saturday (if Portland is thinking of a birthday present) and has a contract commensurate to his status in the game.
He’ll make $45.6 million this season and $48.2 million in 2024-25. Then the real money kicks in at $121 million the next two years when he’s 35 and 36.
Add all that up and you see why no really one wants Lillard if he doesn’t want them first. That’s nothing new in the NBA. Star players are flexing their desires. Kevin Durant, James Harden, Kyrie Irving — there’s a developing list of stars who have been traded where they want to go.
Lillard has none of the public personality tics of some of them. His opting for Miami seems to be all about winning. He’s been to one Western Conference final in 11 years with Portland. The Heat have been to three Eastern Conference finals and two NBA Finals in the past four years.
Does Lillard, at 33, help the Heat that much? Come on. He averaged 32 points last year. He scored 71 in a game. This is a team that couldn’t score enough in the NBA finals against Denver.
Does he make the Heat the favorite in the East? They’re as much a favorite in July as Milwaukee or Boston. He’d instantly open up the court for Jimmy Butler in the way Butler opens up the court for everyone else.
Butler is 34 by next season, too. That’s a big part of the Heat’s push. It would give up some tomorrow starting with Herro. But the best thing about the Heat is they don’t throw away seasons like so many other teams in town. They try to win now and will figure anything out later. They’ll have a chance to win with Lillard.
You can understand Portland fans being upset. Nine years ago Tuesday, LeBron James decided his time was up in Miami and returned to Cleveland. Some Heat fans are still angry by that decision. James was a free agent, too, so his situation isn’t Lillard’s situation.
The better comparison to Lillard is Aaron Rodgers leaving the Green Bay Packers for the New York Jets this spring. Same lifelong talent. Similar questions with management. Rogers had the same holding pattern before the trade was officially done, too.
Lillard is worth the wait. He’ll make the Heat a strong contender again. They’ve won the trade. The only question is when it’s official.